New poll shows Paxton pull ahead of Talarico in high-stakes senate race

Ken Paxton and James Talarico.

A new poll shows Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has narrowly pulled ahead of James Talarico in the race for a key U.S. senate seat from Texas.

Paxton, a Republican, has been trailing Talarico in virtually every poll, but a new poll released Tuesday by Quantus Insights shows Paxton with a slim lead -- less than one point -- over his Democrat rival. "Ken Paxton receives 47.2% to 46.7% for James Talarico among likely voters expressing an intention to vote," Quantus Insights said. "Paxton’s half-point edge leaves the contest effectively tied."

The poll results come exactly three weeks from Election Day and after Talarico raised concerns with an unusual 12-day absence from the campaign trail, which caused Democrats to worry about his whereabouts and some Republicans to suggest Talarico was buckling under the pressure of the high-stakes race and had entered a mental health facility. Talarico's campaign said he came down with the flu.

"Talarico leads independents 52% to 37% and holds 95% of Democratic voters. Paxton receives 87% among Republicans, with 7% supporting Talarico. Those are meaningful openings for the Democrat. But the weighted sample, like the state itself, contains more Republicans than Democrats -- 44.6% versus 34.8% -- giving Paxton a larger partisan base from which to draw," Quantus Insights said of the survey results.

On Monday, The New York Times reported that Elon Musk was spending heavily to support Republican candidates running in the midterm elections. Of the $276 million Musk has put into races, $10 million when to a super PAC supporting Paxton. And Musk has focused on voter turnout operations in Texas.

Talarico's disappearance from the campaign trail came in the days after he was seen on video discussing his favorite drag queen, and after making attempts to walk back some of the most extreme statements he's made in recent years that have haunted his run for senate. 

JD Vance was in Texas on Tuesday campaigning for Paxton and reminding voters there of his controversial positions, such as encourage parents to transition children if kids express any confusion about their gender. "Ladies and gentlemen, this guy is a freak! Don't elect him -- elect Ken Paxton," the vice president told supporters. "Will you vote for the future we want to leave for our children here in Texas?"

Below, watch a clip of Vance speaking in Texas.