New polling results flash big warning signs for Republicans in midterms

Democrats hold an advantage over Republicans in 7 of 9 key issues, according to a new Fox News poll.

New polls released this week that measure how the American electorate may vote in the November midterm elections are packed with warnings and pitfalls for Republicans, particularly surrounding the party's effort to hang onto control of the House of Representatives.

The most significant polling data comes from a Fox News survey of American voters. Some 53% of voters who participated in the poll responded that they would vote for a Democrat candidate running to represent their district in the House if the election were held today. Just 46% of respondents indicated they would vote for the Republican candidate. The poll was conducted between July 17 and July 20. The margin has widened by a point since Fox News last conducted the poll in April, and the seven-point spread favoring Democrats is the widest the Fox News poll has recorded since Democrats enjoyed an eight-point advantage in July 2018. 

Particularly concerning for Republicans in the Fox News poll is how American voters view as most fit to handle the economy. A year ago at this time, Republicans enjoyed a one-point advantage over Democrats. The new poll shows Democrats now have a nine-point advantage -- and a 10-point swing since last year -- over Republicans just a little more than three months from Election Day.

And the economy is not the only issue on which Republicans' support has significantly eroded, the Fox News poll showed. Most notably, Republicans now trail Democrats by seven points on foreign policy and by one point on immigration, one of the Trump administration's key priorities. As recently as April of this year, Republicans held an eight-point advantage over Democrats on immigration in the Fox News poll, making for a startling swing in just a few months.

Republicans still hold a seven-point lead over Democrats on crime, and a slim two-point lead over Democrats on national security. Otherwise, Democrats have an advantage on seven of the nine issues on which Fox News polled voters. 

According to political analysts at Fox News, American voters are showing they "want major change amid economic and political discontent." In an Emerson College National Polling survey asking voters the same question about voting preferences for a House representative, the margin was even wider. Democrats hold an 11.4-point advantage -- up a full eight points since the November 2025 edition of the poll.

Although the race for control of the House looks bleak for Republicans, Fox News earlier this week predicted Republicans have a more realistic potential to hold on to control of the Senate in the upcoming midterms. Political analysts there are predicting the race to be a toss-up, with each side set to win 48 seats. The race will come down to results in four swing states, the analysts say, with Alaska, Iowa, Maine, and Ohio too close to predict at this stage.