Control of Senate a toss-up and Democrats favored to take control of House in midterms, Fox News projects

Race for control of Senate is a toss-up heading into midterms.

A little more than three months out from the November midterm elections, control of the U.S. Senate is a toss-up that could come down to races in four states, according to Fox News, which released its first 2026 midterm power rankings on Tuesday. Democrats enjoy a slim edge in the race for control of the House of Representatives, Fox News also forecast.

As of mid-July, the Senate races are shaping up to be a dead heat, with Fox News predicting each party will win 48 of the 100 hundred seats. Control of the Senate will come down to races in four states -- Alaska, Iowa, Maine, and Ohio. Still, Republicans could be poised to hold onto control of the Senate.

"The Democrats have a mountain to climb," Fox News analysts pointed out, noting that Democrats will need to capture three of the four toss-up seats while also not losing in critical states like Georgia, Michigan and New Hampshire. In addition, Democrats will likely need to flip a seat in North Carolina. "Six of those eight states voted for Trump in 2024, and half of them by double digits," political analysts at Fox News also noted. 

However, Republicans haven't won a Senate race in Michigan in more than 30 years. Similarly, Democrats are banking on James Talarico to defeat Ken Paxton for a Senate seat in Texas, where Democrats haven't won a senate race since the 1980s.

Republicans are more vulnerable to losing control of the House, Fox News analysts project, saying Democrats hold a slim lead in the race to flip control of the chamber. As of mid-July, Democrats are projected two win 211 seats to Republicans 208, with 16 seats seen as toss-ups. A party will need to win at least 218 seats to maintain a majority in the House. “As of right now, voters prefer Democrats on the general ballot against Republicans at about 4%. That’s a flip from 2024 when Republicans led that by 1%,” Fox News reporter Bill Melugin said.

Meanwhile, the top four issues animating American voters heading into the midterms are, in order, cost of living, democratic values, immigration, and crime, according to polling data aggregated by Fox News. President Trump's approval rating on the economy, essentially the core issue Americans will be voting on this November, stands at 31% as of June, with 68% of voters polled by Fox News disapproving of the president's handling of the economy. 

For more on the midterms forecasting, watch the video below.