Another poll shows race between Paxton and Talarico now a 'tossup'

James Talarico Ken Paxton poll results.

The U.S. senate race in Texas continues tightening with a new poll over the weekend showing the contest is now a "tossup" 15 days ahead of Election Day and with early voting under way as of Monday.

According to a new CBS News / YouGov poll released on Sunday, Democrat James Talarico has 51%-49% lead over his Republican rival Ken Paxton, the state's attorney general. The poll is the second survey in less than a week showing a virtually tied race, joining a poll out last Tuesday that showed Paxton holding a half-point lead over Talarico. 

While the poll shows Talarico enjoys a slim lead over Paxton, the results are within the 3.5-point margin of error, meaning the race is "essentially tied," according to CBS News, "and now all about turnout."

The poll surveyed voter enthusiasm for each candidate and, while Paxton himself is not strongly backed by those who say they're voting for him, he nevertheless has strong support "because he's the GOP nominee or to oppose Talarico, and because they want to support President Trump." 

Trump for weeks has urged Republican voters to get out and vote and pretend he's on the ticket in the 2026 midterms. "A lot of Paxton's backing from Republicans is an effort to support Trump," according to the pollsters.

However, one of the key aspects measured by the poll found that Democrats were more likely to say they definitely plan to vote in the midterms, with 87% of Democrats responding that they will definitely vote. On the Republican side, just 76% responded that they would definitely vote in the midterms. Indepedent voters were similar to Republicans, with 77% indicating definite plans to vote. 

Where Talarico has a slight and potentially pivotal advantage is that 5% of Republicans who were polled responded that they planned to vote for Talarico. 

For more on the poll findings, watch the video below: