Stock market under Trump outperforming historical averages for a 2nd-term president

Harry Enten.

The S&P 500, one of the stock indexes that are tracked by many Americans' 401 [k] retirement accounts, is "up like rocket" during President Trump's second term, outperforming historical averages.

Harry Enten, CNN's resident polling guru, on Thursday walked viewers through not just the hard numbers around stock performance, but also polling that reveals investor sentiment among Americans. Since President Trump's second term began in January 2025, the S&P 500 has risen 19%, a mark that far outpaces the average 6% gains under all presidents going back to 1961. Looking at a shorter timeframe, dating back to 2001, the average increase of the S&P 500 under all presidents was 15%. The S&P 500 under Trump is "going up like a rocket," Enten said.

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq both closed at record highs on Wednesday, according to CNBC, though both markets were trending down some on Thursday. Nevertheless, the S&P 500 has been on a remarkable run of late, seemingly undeterred by the war in the Middle East, as The Wall Street Journal reported this week. 

Enten also pointed out that polling shows Americans believe it's a good time to be investing in stocks. According to one recent poll, 52% of Americans believe the current market conditions present a good time to be invested in stocks. That same poll showed 41% of Democrats are bullish on the current stock market conditions, Enten noted. He went on to say that the ceasefire has been particularly good news for those invested in the stock markets with voters of all stripes in support of the stability that the ceasefire, now in its third week, provides securities exchanges. 

Stocks have continued to rise under the second term of the Trump presidency, despite predictions of doom from many economists over the tariffs the president implemented last year, and despite the war with Iran. The Dow in early February closed above 50,000 for the first time ever. Enten also looked at the chances that the S&P 500 would finish the year in the green and said prediction markets are giving that outcome a 64% chance. Watch his full segment below.