Republicans enjoy increasing support from black voters under Trump, polling shows

Harry Enten.

The Republican Party under Donald Trump is "chipping away at" Democrats' stronghold on African-American voters, new polling data shows, and it could have implications for the coming midterm elections.

Harry Enten, CNN's polling expert, broke down the numbers in a segment that aired on Thursday. He pointed to two categories that tell the story about Trump's, and by extension the Republican Party's, rising popularity with black voters: Trump's approval rating and party ID among African-American voters. 

According to an aggregate of polling data crunched by Enten, Trump's approval rating among black voters is up to 16% in his second term from 12% in his first term. Enten said the four-point shift might not seem like a lot, but it's worth keeping an eye on given Democrats' long-term advantage with black voters. "This has major implications for elections down the line," Enten said pointing to numerous congressional races that are expected to be close calls.

Even more striking was the shift in party identification among black voters. During Trump's first term, Democrats had a 63-point advantage in terms of the number of black voters in the U.S. who identified as Democrat. That share has tumbled to a 51-point advantage in 2026, the party's smallest lead over Republicans since 2006.

"All of a sudden, there are a number of African-Americans who are walking away from the Democratic Party, and a number of them who are walking into the Republican tent," Enten said. Trump in 2024 nearly doubled support he received from black voters in 2016, and a big question mark for Republicans is whether they can carry that support into the 2026 midterm elections.

Watch Enten's full segment below and how these numbers could affect the race for control of Congress.