Republicans enjoy 5-point lead in net favorability ahead of 2026 midterms

Harry Enten.

High-five! Some 210 days ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, Republicans lead Democrats in net favorability, according to the latest survey data analyzed by CNN polling guru Harry Enten. 

Enten said Monday that Republicans hold a 5-point lead over Democrats in net favorability at this point heading into the midterms in November. That figure may not seem terribly large, but Enten pointed out it's significant because over the last 20 years, Republicans have been underwater in net favorability at this point on the calendar in a midterm cycle under a Republican president. 

In 2006, Democrats held an 18-point advantage over Republicans when it came to net favorability. More recently, Democrats were plus-12 over Republicans leading up to the 2018 midterms. All of which makes the 5-point Republican advantage in April 2026 a significant swing. 

"Democrats are, simply put, running behind their previous benchmark," Enten said. "And they need to be running well ahead of them if they want to take back the United States Senate." Enten believes that Republicans are likely to hold on to control of the Senate, based on this analysis and the state of the 2026 electoral map. He went on to say Democrats are, as of today, positioned to win back control of the House, where the margin is already very slim, but precariously so.

Enten also pointed out that in 2006 and 2018, Democrats had 11-point and 8-point leads when voters were polled on a generic Democrat ballot for the midterms. This year, that lead has slipped to 5 points. "You could make the argument that Democrats should be way ahead, and they're just only sort of slightly ahead."

Below, watch a clip of Enten explaining the polling swing.