Democrats hold slimmest of leads over Republicans in polling 5 months ahead of midterms

Harry Enten.

The blue wave many pundits are predicting for the midterm elections in November may not materialize, CNN polling guru Harry Enten said Monday, breaking down the numbers that many Democrats may find concerning. 

According to Enten's analysis of polls released in June, Democrats are clinging to a razor-thin lead over Republicans less than sixth months out from the midterms. And that slim lead has shrunk over the last five months. Enten highlighted polls conducted by NBC News, Marquette University Law School and Ipsos. Democrats' lead shrank by a point in the NBC News poll, by three points in the Marquette poll and was flat in the Ipsos poll.

"There is this group of pollsters that are out there that are just not matching what you might expect if you're expecting a Democratic wave," Enten said. He also pointed to the leads Democrats held at a similar point in time back in 2018 and 2006, which, in both cases, were double-digit advantages in the polls. "Democrats probably [will] take back the House — but it’s far from a guarantee," Enten added.

Dave Rubin has consistently been cautioning that anyone expecting the midterms to be a lock for the Democrats to retake control of the House and the Senate is missing something in the national zeitgeist about the direction average Americans want the country to take.

"I do think most of the country has some base level of morality and decency, and [they] don't want this endless quest to destroy everything, whether it's our cities or our moral fabric," Dave said on an episode last week. Below, watch Enten's analysis of the polling data that shows a blue wave in November may be nothing more than a figment of Democrats' imagination.