AOC soars to top of betting markets for 1st time ahead of 2028 race

Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York is surging on prediction markets and has become the frontrunner, the first time the 36-year-old has been in the lead since the markets began taking bets on the 2028 White House hopefuls.

On Kalshi, AOC was tied with California Gov. Gavin Newsom at the top of the field of Democrats, with a 17% chance of capturing the nomination in 2028 as of Friday. Her lead was more pronounced on Polymarket, where she enjoys a five-point lead over Newsom, her closest competitor, with her chances at 22% as of Friday.  And when it comes to the 2028 overall winner, AOC has surged into a tie for second with Marco Rubio, while trailing Vice President JD Vance by 10 points. Kalshi has AOC running in fourth place for the 2028 presidential election, behind Vance, Rubio, Newsom, and U.S. Senator Jon Ossoff of Georgia.

AOC's current standing in the betting markets somewhat mirrors the early results of a poll in Dave Rubin's newsletter, which was sent on Thursday and is being guest-written this month while Dave is off the grid. Readers of The Rubin Recap believe AOC is currently the favorite at 27% to clinch the 2028 nomination for Democrats, with Newsom running second and Kamala Harris third.

Early results of a Rubin Recap poll asking readers who Democrats are likely to run for president in 2028.

As The Independent points out, however, most conventional political polls still point to Harris as the most likely 2028 nominee. AOC hasn't declared her candidacy, but also said earlier this week she hasn't ruled out a White House run. The 36-year-old congresswoman's attempt to retreat from her signature woke dogma of the last eight years, along with her public revelation that she's begun the process of freezing her eggs, has thrust her to the top of the 2028 conversation. And a poll of New Hampshire voters released in late July had her at the top of the field, narrowly leading Pete Buttigieg. 

It's not just the betting markets that are putting AOC in the driver's seat. Even Scott Jennings said on CNN this week that AOC "quite likely is the frontrunner" in the 2028 race because "she is the heir to the [Bernie] Sanders socialist movement." Watch a highlight of Jennings' remarks below.