3 reasons Republicans might be stronger heading into midterms than people think

With less than four weeks until the midterm elections on November 3, there are at least a few signs that have emerged in recent days suggesting that all may not be lost for Republicans, despite the grim predictions in recent weeks and months. 

One key factor, CNN data guru Harry Enten pointed out on Wednesday, that could be pivotal for Republicans is voter registration numbers. Republicans enjoy a significant margin over Democrats, with the party in its best position in more than 20 years going into a midterm election, according to Enten. 

Republicans are up in the key swing states of Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada, and Arizona in terms of the number of registered voters compared to the number of registrations in those states heading into the 2018 midterm elections during President Trump's first term. 

Just as important, Enten said, is the fact that Democrats have made no voter registration gains in any of those swing states since 2024. Enten didn't rule out possible late gains by Democrats in those states during the remaining weeks before Election Day. "But when you take the longer-term view in all of these states, Democrats are not actually gaining ground," he said. 

Enten said the trends are historically good for Republicans since the turn of the century, but he stressed that these aren't polling numbers, which have painted a grimmer portrait of what's in store for Republicans Election Day. But what about those polls? Is it possible an error on the order of 2016 could be looming?

Voter surveys that are off are another possible factor that could put Republicans in a stronger position than most think they're in currently. At least one longtime pollster pointed out the possibility of such an error this week in a post on X. "If Republican voters aren’t answering polls, the polls could end up making the same mistake they did in 2016," Frank Luntz said in response to a pollster who said in a post that Republican voters are either lying about who they plan to vote for or are ignoring their polling efforts altogether. 

In a story published Thursday, even Axios admitted, "The polls showing Democrats headed toward a blue wave on Nov. 3 might not be quite right." The story, however, went on to break down how campaign spending is going in the final monthlong sprint, and suggested the places in which each party is spending on ads -- or pulling ads and not spending -- suggests Democrats still have an edge. 

Former Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich was blunt about the potential for another polling bust. Don’t believe the polls. "There will be no blue wave," the former governor and Democrat predicted in a post on X. "Once again, fake polling, designed, not to inform but to persuade & suppress turnout, are misleading voters."

Finally, Republicans can take comfort in knowing they have the ultimate gamechanger in their corner: Donald Trump. During a discussion on CNN Wednesday evening, Scott Jennings pushed back against the mainstream narrative that Trump is dragging down Republican candidates. 

“My view is, if you hate Donald Trump and you've hated him for 10 years, and you're going to turn out because of that, you're not open to persuasion," said Jennings. "Where he helps is with Republican turnout. There are voters who love Donald Trump, they believe in Donald Trump, they want to see his agenda enacted. They're worried that Democrats in Congress could block that if they get the majority, and they don't have a high propensity of turning out in every election. He can definitely help you with that.” 

Readers of Dave Rubin's free newsletter are also optimistic about how Republicans will fare, with 57% responding in a recent newsletter poll that they expect the GOP to hold onto control of both the House and Senate.

Or as Dave put it during Wednesday's episode of The Rubin Report, "Trump, in some sense, is a Jesus-like figure." So, a miracle on November 3 -- if needed -- might not be out of the question. Below, watch Enten's segment on voter registration.