3 polls show Talarico with lead over Paxton in Senate race less than 100 days out from election

Democrat James Talarico is ahead of his Republican rival Ken Paxton, three polls, including one released on Tuesday, show -- however the race appears to be tightening. 

A poll conducted by Texas Southern University released on Tuesday shows Talarico holds a slim 47-45 lead over Paxton, within the poll's 2.83% margin of error. A Fox News poll released last week showed Talarico with a similarly narrow 51-48 lead over Paxton and a survey by Texas Public Opinion Research showed Talarico with a wider 45-40 lead. All three polls were conducted during the last week of July, less than 100 days from Election Day.

Paxton's team isn't fazed by the polling numbers. "The only poll that matters is November 3," Nick Maddux, an adviser to Paxton, said, according to Axios. "Talarico's campaign will end up exactly where every Democrat before him has ended up in Texas — a pipe dream." A Democrat hasn't won a U.S. senate seat in Texas in nearly 40 years, so history may be one reason for the Paxton campaign's confidence in the face of his trailing poll numbers.

Another reason may be some of Talarico's recent radical public statements. At a recent town hall event, Talarico nodded in agreement when a supporter said the Karmelo Anthony case -- the Texas teen convicted of murder for stabbing a rival at a high school track meet -- was "a f**king tragedy." Talarico has also continued to spew racially-charged rhetoric, saying during a recent podcast interview that "my whiteness, my masculinity -- all those things limit my imagination about what is possible."

Still, as CNN data guru Harry Enten illustrated in a segment this week, Talarico is polling stronger than Beto O'Rourke was polling at the same point in the 2018 cycle, and Paxton is polling worse than Ted Cruz was at this point in 2018 -- meaning Democrats could come closer than they have since 1988 to winning a U.S. senate seat in Texas. Watch below for his analysis.